PUBLIC DEMO

One customer, one action, one decision

Pick a sample customer or set one yourself. The calculation runs in your browser: nothing is sent.

Customer

SAMPLE CUSTOMERS

PAST ORDERS

AVERAGE BASKET EX. VAT

GROSS MARGIN RATE

RETURN RATE

DAYS SINCE LAST ORDER

AVERAGE GAP BETWEEN ORDERSObserved from history; with no history, the cohort sets 120 days.

Proposed action

ACTION COST (DISCOUNT, OFFER, FOLLOW-UP)

POLICY

MARGIN FLOOR AFTER ACTION

MAXIMUM BUDGET PER CUSTOMER

EXPECTED EFFECT OF THE ACTIONAssumption to calibrate: the share of future value the action gains.

Result

—

NET FUTURE VALUE

median, 12 months

—

LOWER BOUND

1 in 10 chance of falling below

—

UPPER BOUND

1 in 10 chance of rising above

NET FUTURE VALUE: 80 % BAND AND MEDIAN

DECISION

—

PROPOSED COST, COMPUTED CEILING AND MAXIMUM BUDGET

Cost ceiling	—
Proposed cost	—
Expected net gain (median)	—
Expected net gain (lower bound)	—
Margin after action	—

GUARDRAILS

Simplified demo model on fictitious data. It illustrates the method; it is not the production engine and it is not advice. Formulas and limits: Method page.